EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.9051 last week but retreated sharply since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. With 0.8954 minor support intact, further rise cannot be ruled out. But upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in 4 hour and daily MACD. Upside should be limited by 0.9101 key resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.8954 support should confirm short term topping. In this case, deeper pull back could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.8882) first.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8545). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. However, firm break of 55 week EMA (now at 0.8801) would possibly extend the correction another another fall to below 0.8472 before completion.

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In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9306 at 0.8400 holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.


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