EUR/GBP’s corrective fall from 0.9324 extended lower last week. While further decline cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support from 0.8891 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.8472 to 0.9324 at 0.8856 to contained downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9148 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9324 high. However, sustained break of 0.8891 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.8472 to 0.9324 at 0.8797 and below.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) should be resuming. Sustained break of 0.9305 will confirm and target 0.9799 (2008 high) and then 61.8% projection of 0.6935 to 0.9305 from 0.8472 at 0.9937. In any case, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.8891 support holds, in case of deep pull back. However, sustained break of 0.8891 will dampen this bullish view and focus would be back on 0.8472 key support.

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In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 0.8472 support holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.


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