Despite interim recovery, EUR/GBP’s down trend continued last week by breaking through 0.8425 temporary low on Friday. Initial bias is back on the downside this week. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8728 to 0.8453 from 0.8611 at 0.8336. Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 0.8476 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 (2024 low) should have completed at 0.8863, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.9267 (2025 high) to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8221. For now, outlook will be stay bearish as long as 0.8611 resistance hold.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.
