EUR/JPY’s rebound from 115.86 short term bottom extended higher last week and initial bias remains on the upside. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 123.35 to 115.86 at 120.48 next. Sustained break will target 123.35 key resistance. On the downside, break of 117.55 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 115.86.

In the bigger picture, as long as 120.78 support turned resistance holds, down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) should still be in progress. Break of 115.86 will target 109.48 (2016 low) and below. However, sustained break of 120.78 will be the first indication of medium term reversal. Further rise would then be seen to 127.50 resistance for confirmation.

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In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA, this is the preferred case.

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