EUR/JPY’s fall from 122.87 extended to as low as 118.86 last week. Current development is in line with the view that whole corrective rise from 115.86 has completed at 122.87 already. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 100% projection of 122.87 to 119.77 from 121.15 at 118.05 next. On the upside, above 119.55 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited well below 121.15 resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish as the cross is staying well inside falling channel established since 137.49 (2018 high). It was also just rejected by 55 week EMA. Break of 115.86 will extend the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) to 114.84 support next.

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In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg would target 109.48 (2016 low). With EUR/JPY staying below 55 month EMA (now at 125.58), this is the preferred case.

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