EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY rose further to 144.06 last week but retreated well ahead of 145.62 high. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 145.62 resistance will resume larger up trend. However, break of 140.77 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, to extend the corrective pattern from 145.62 with another falling leg towards 137.32 support.

In the bigger picture, as long as 133.38 support holds, the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) could still extend through 145.62 high. In that case, next target is 149.76 (2015 high). However, sustained break of 133.38 will be a sign of medium term bearish reversal and bring deeper fall to 124.37 support first.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 129.41) holds, up trend 109.03 (2016 low) should still extend higher to 149.76 resistance (2014 high). However, sustained break of 55 month EMA will argue that the three wave pattern has completed, and bring deeper fall back to 109.03/114.42 support zone.

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