EUR/JPY’s fall from 163.86 extended lower last week and the development suggests that rebound from 154.40 has completed at 163.86, ahead of 55 D EMA. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for retesting 154.40. Break there will resume the whole decline from 175.41 to 153.15 support. On the upside, above 160.01 support turned resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.95).
