EUR/JPY’s fall from 163.86 extended lower last week but turned sideway after hitting 155.45. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook will stay cautiously bearish as long as 160.01 support turned resistance holds. Below 155.45 will bring retest of 154.40 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1785.41 to 153.15 support, and possibly further to 152.11 fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 145.95).
