EUR/JPY’s extended decline last week suggests that rebound from 156.16 has already completed at 164.89. But downside momentum remained unconvincing. Also, with a temporary low formed at 159.74, initial bias is neutral this week first. On the downside, below 159.74 will target 156.16 support. On the upside, break of 162.89 will bring retest of 164.89 instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 148.21).
