EUR/JPY retreated to 161.57 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 164.61 will resume the rally from 154.77 to 166.67 resistance next. However, firm break of 161.57 support will indicate near term reversal and target 158.27 support instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 149.91).
