EUR/JPY’s rally from 154.77 continued last week and the late breach of 169.69 temporary top suggests that it’s resuming after brief retreat. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 161.06 at 170.45. Break there will target 138.2% projection at 174.03. On the downside, below 168.54 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring more consolidations.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.
In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 150.56).
