EUR/JPY’s rise from 169.69 resumed last week but retreated again after hitting 173.39. Initial bias is neutral this week, and further rise is in favor. Above 173.39 will target a retest on 173.87. Firm break there will resume larger up rise to retest 175.41 key resistance. However, break of 171.09 will extend the corrective pattern from 173.87 with another leg towards 169.69 again.
In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97 will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.
