EUR/JPY’s rally resumed by breaking through 173.77/8 resistance but lost momentum again after hitting 174.48. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 172.11 support holds. Above 174.48 will target a retest on 175.41 high. However, firm break of 172.11 support will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.
In the bigger picture, current rally from 154.77 is still tentatively seen as resuming the larger up trend. Firm break of 175.41 (2024 high) will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 from 154.77 (2025 low) at 186.31. However, sustained break of 169.69 support will delay this bullish case, and probably extend the correction from 175.41 with another fall.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32.
