EUR/JPY’s sharp reversal last week suggests that a short term top was already formed at 187.93. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 182.56 to 187.93 at 185.87. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 187.93 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress Next target is 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. For now, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as 180.78 support holds, even in case of deeper pullback.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 176.94) holds.
