EUR/JPY’s rally from 179.34 continued last week. The development is inline with the case that fall from 187.93 has completed as a three wave correction. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 187.42 resistance. Firm break there will target a retest on 187.93 high. On the downside, below 184.89 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from rising 55 W EMA (now at 180.64) keeps the up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) intact. Break of 187.93 will target 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 175.41 resistance turned support holds.
