Thu, Mar 23, 2023 @ 03:51 GMT

EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

EUR/JPY’s fall from 122.88 extended to as low as 119.31 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Overall, there is no change in the view that price actions from 124.08 are developing into a consolidative pattern. While more sideway trading could be seen, an upside breakout is expected later to resume the larger rise from 109.20.

EUR/JPY 4 Hours Chart

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is neutral this week first. Below 119.31 will bring deeper fall. But we’d expect strong support from 118.45 key cluster support level (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.81 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 124.08 high.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

EUR/JPY Weekly Chart

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already. Before that, deeper fall is mildly in favor towards 94.11 low. Overall, long term rang trading will continue.

EUR/JPY Monthly Chart

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