EUR/JPY’s strong rebound last week confirmed short term bottoming at 177.82. However, subsequent rebound stalled at 181.53 and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Risk of another rise remains as long as 177.82 holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 187.93 to 181.68 will target 61.8% retracement at 184.06 next.
In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Deeper fall cannot be ruled out, towards 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 before completion. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 186.00 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 175.41 resistance turned support holds.
