EUR/JPY stayed in tight range above 175.07 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week with focus on 175.26/41 support zone. Strong rebound from there, followed by firm break of 177.95 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. However, sustained break of 175.26/41 will carry larger bearish implications. Next target is 100% projection of 186.00 to 177.82 from 181.53 at 173.35.
In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Strong support should be seen from 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 to contain downside. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 167.43.
In the long term picture, as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 187.93 at a later stage. However, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, firm break of 175.41 will argue that a major top is already in place, and target 55 M EMA (now at 163.95).
