EUR/JPY rebounded to 178.46 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and risk is mildly on the upside. Above 178.46 will resume the rise from 175.04 to 181.53 resistance next. However, sustained break of 175.26/41 will carry larger bearish implications and resume the whole fall from 187.93.
In the bigger picture, price action from 187.93 is seen as a corrective pattern to up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Strong support should be seen from 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 to contain downside. However, decisive break will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 167.43.
In the long term picture, as long as 175.41 resistance turned support holds, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 187.93 at a later stage. However, considering bearish divergence condition in M MACD, firm break of 175.41 will argue that a major top is already in place, and target 55 M EMA (now at 163.95).
