Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.89; (P) 130.45; (R1) 131.55; More….
Strong rebound from 129.34, together with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, suggests short term bottoming there. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 137.49 to 129.34 at 132.45. But overall, decline from 137.49 shouldn’t be finished yet. We’d still expect another fall to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level at a later stage.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. On the upside, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, risk will now stay on the downside even in case of strong rebound.