Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.86; (P) 129.42; (R1) 129.90; More….

Today’s recovery pulled 4 hour MACD above signal line. A temporary low is in place at 128.94 and intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first. Near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 132.40 resistance holds. Break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.

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