EUR/USD’s fall from 1.2265, as well as the pattern from 1.2348, finally resumed by taking out 1.1663 support last week. A temporary bottom is likely formed at 1.1561 as it lost momentum. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.1682 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1561 will target 1.1289 medium term fibonacci level. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.1682 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.1908 resistance.
In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that rise from 1.0635 (2020 low) has completed at 1.2348. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289. Note also that rejection by 55 week EMA (1.1830) also carries medium term bearish implication. Firm break of 1.1289 will pave the way to retest 1.0635 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1908 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.2348 high.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) already. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the change of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.
