EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s decline from 1.1274 extended lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week. Decisive break of 1.0832 support will target 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, above 1.0951 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1064 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be formed at 1.1274, after failing to break through 61.8% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273 decisively, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as a correction to the uptrend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper decline would be seen to 1.0634 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1274 at 1.0609). Strong support could be seen there, at least on first attempt, to set the range for consolidation. Yet, medium term outlook will be neutral for now, as long as 1.1274 resistance holds.

In the long term picture, focus stays on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1136). Rejection by this EMA will revive long term bearishness. However, sustained break above here will be affirm the case of long term bullish reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

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