EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD rebounded strongly to 1.0875 last week but retreated since then. Yet there was no follow through selling. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the downside, decisive break of 1.0694/0723 support zone will resume whole fall from 1.1138. On the upside, though, break of 1.0875 will resume the rebound from 1.0723 towards 1.0980 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). Rise from 1.0447 is seen as the second leg. While further rally could cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.1274 to bring the third leg of the pattern. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.0694 support will argue that the third leg has already started for 1.0447 and possibly below.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. It’s still early to call for bullish trend reversal with the pair staying inside falling channel in the monthly chart. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.1050) and break of 1.1274 resistance will raise the chance of reversal and target 1.2348 resistance for confirmation.

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