EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD’s consolidation form 1.0667 continued last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected with 1.0760 resistance intact. Decline from 1.0915 is seen as another leg in the larger corrective pattern. Firm break of 1.0667 will target 1.0601 and below. However, decisive break of 1.0760 will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 are viewed as a corrective pattern that’s still in progress. Break of 1.0601 will target 1.0447 support and possibly further to 100% projection of 1.1274 to 1.0447 from 1.1138 at 1.0311. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.0915 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom is in place at 0.9534 (2022 low). But considering that upside is still capped below 55 M EMA (now at 1.1018), there is no sign of trend reversal yet. Down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume at a later stage if current selloff picks up momentum.

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