EUR/USD dived to as low as 1.1529 last week but recovered after breaching 1.1576 support briefly. Initial bias remains neutral first and further decline is in favor as long as 1.1740 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.1529 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.2081 on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 1.1498) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. That would also raise the chance that whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective bounce too. For now, medium term outlook is neutral at best as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
