EUR/USD’s down trend resumed by braking through 1.1103 last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0904 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 1.1072 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.1272 resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. Sustained break there will target 1.0176. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1323 support turned resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, the firm break of 55 M EMA (now at 1.1243) argue that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective move at 1.2081, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level. That will keep the long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact. Break of 0.9534 low is in favor at a later stage.
