Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2275; (P) 1.2316 (R1) 1.2376; More….

EUR/USD’s sharp fall today now put 1.2257 support back into focus. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. For the moment, we’re slightly favoring the case that price actions from 1.2445 are corrective in nature. And 1.2257 support should hold even in case of a brief breach. Another rise is expected and break of 1.2445 will target a test on 1.2555 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.2257 will dampen this bullish view. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside, to resume the fall from 1.2555 through 1.2154.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

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