Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0619; (P) 1.0652 (R1) 1.0675; More….

EUR/USD’s fall resumed by taking out 1.0628 temporary low. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 1.0494 support. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed at 1.0905. And more importantly, larger down trend is probably resuming. Decisive break of 1.0494 support will confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low. On the upside, break of 1.0688 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

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EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

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