GBP/JPY dropped to as low as 123.94 last week, then formed a short term bottom there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 144.95 to 123.94 at 136.92 to bring fall resumption. Break of 123.94 will resume larger down trend.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are merely a sideway consolidation pattern, which has completed at 147.96. Larger down trend from 195.86 (2015 high) as well as that from 251.09 (2007 high) are possibly resuming. Break of 122.75 should target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next. In any case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 147.95 resistance holds.
In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) could be resuming. Break of 116.83 will target 61.8% projection of 195.86 to 122.75 from 147.95 at 102.76 next.