GBP/JPY rebounded last week but failed to sustain above 151.38 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 151.38 will turn bias to the upside for 153.42 resistance first. Break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 156.05 has completed, and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, decisive break of 149.03 support will carry larger bearish implication and target 143.78 fibonacci level next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.
In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high). However, rejection by 156.69 will invalidate the bullish signal and keep long term outlook neutral first.
