GBP/JPY rose to 163.73 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week first. For now, the favored case is that correction from 172.11 has completed at 155.33 already. Above 163.73 will resume the rise from 155.33 to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. However, break of 160.44 minor support will dampen this case and bring retest of 155.33 low instead.
In the bigger picture, corrective decline from 172.11 medium term should have completed at 155.33. With 38.2% retracement of 123.94 (2020 low) to 172.11 (2022 high) at 153.70 intact, medium term bullishness is retained. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Break of 172.11 high to resume such up trend is expected at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, as long as 55 month EMA (now at 152.76) holds, rise from 122.75 could still extend higher at a later stage to 195.86 (2015 high).
