GBP/JPY’s fall from 198.94 continued last week despite some loss of downside momentum. Further fall is expected to 188.07 support this week. Firm break there will argue that corrective pattern from 180.00 has finished too, and larger decline from 208.09 might be ready to resume. On the upside, above 193.01 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it’s still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 173.41).
