GBP/JPY’s choppy rebound from extended to 151.21 last week but breached 150.92 resistance briefly. But it couldn’t sustain above 150.92 (50% retracement of 156.59 to 144.97 at 150.78) yet. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. We’d still expect strong resistance from 150.78/92 to limit upside. Break of 148.37 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 144.97 first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal has been building up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds. However, sustained trading above 150.92 will argue that the larger rise from 122.36 might still be in progress for another high above 156.59.
.In the longer term picture, rejection from 55 month EEMA (now at 154.18) argues that medium term rebound from 122.36 might be completed. And, the corrective structure also carries some bearish implication today. Sustained break of 135.58 key support will likely bring retest of 122.36 low, with prospect of resuming the long term down trend from 195.86 (2015 high).