Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2698; (P) 1.2765; (R1) 1.2833; More…
GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.2692 extends higher today but it’s limited below 1.2921 support turned resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 1.2921 holds, near term outlook stays cautiously bearish and another decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.2692 will target 1.2661 low first. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4376. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2661 from 1.3297 at 1.2237. However, break of 1.2921 should extend the consolidation pattern from 1.2661 with another rise towards 1.3297 resistance before completion.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
