Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2878; (P) 1.2940; (R1) 1.3047; More….
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.2391 is in progress. Further rise should target 1.3174 resistance, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3149. As such rebound is seen as a corrective pattern, we’d expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 1.2832 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.2668 minor support holds.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view. However, sustained break of 1.3174 will invalidate this case and turn outlook bullish.
