GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.3410 extended higher last week. Further rise is mildly in favor this week as long as 1.3542 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.3727) will target 1.3912 key near term resistance. On the downside, below 1.3542 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3410 low.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 is at least a correction to the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low). Such correction could extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164 before completion. However, considering the rejection by 1.4376 key resistance (2018 high), sustained trading below 1.3164 will argue that it’s indeed a bearish trend reversal and would target 61.8% retracement at 1.2493. Nevertheless, break of 1.3912 resistance will revive medium term bullishness and target 1.4248/4376 resistance zone again.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.
