GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

GBP/USD’s up trend from 1.0351 resumed last week and hit as high as 1.3141. But as a temporary top was formed with subsequent retreat, initial bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Downside of retreat should be contained above 1.2847 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.3141 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2306 to 1.2847 from 1.2589 at 1.3464 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom (2022 low) is in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3895. Break there will target 1.4248 key long term resistance (2021 high) next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2678 resistance turned support holds.

In the long term picture, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.2917) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. Decisive break of 1.4248 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.0351 at 1.4480) will confirm completion of whole down trend from 2.1161. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.4248/4480 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.

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