GBP/USD’s fall form 1.3141 extended lower last week and the break of 1.2847 resistance turned support argues that larger correction is underway. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 55 D EMA (now at 1.2692). On the upside, break of 1.2963 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside retest 1.3141 high instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.2678 resistance turned support holds, rise form 1.0351 (2022 low) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0351 to 1.2445 from 1.1801 at 1.3895. However, sustained break of 1.2678 will argue that it’s at least corrective this rally, with risk of bearish reversal.
In the long term picture, sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 1.2911) will add to the case of long term bullish reversal. Decisive break of 1.4248 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.0351 at 1.4480) will confirm completion of whole down trend from 2.1161. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.4248/4480 will keep long term outlook neutral at best.
. On the upside, break of 1.2963 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside retest 1.3141 high instead.){kind=link}