Despite some interim jitters, USD/CAD’s rebound from 1.2961 last week suggests that correction from 1.3385 has completed with three waves down to 1.2961. It’s also kept inside medium term rising channel. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 1.3289 resistance next. Break will argue that rise from 1.2061 is resuming through 1.3385 high. On the downside, though, break of 1.3035 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 1.2961 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2911) holds, we’re holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

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In the longer term picture, corrective fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) should have completed with three waves down to 1.2061, just ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. The development keeps long term up trend from 0.9406 and that from 0.9056 (2007 low) intact. It’s early to tell, but there is now prospect of extending the long term up trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.4689 from 1.2061 at 1.5326 in medium to long term.

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