Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3418; (P) 1.3538; (R1) 1.3606; More…
USD/CAD’s pull back from 1.3665 short term top is still in progress. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.2781 to 1.3664 at 1.3327. We’d expect downside to be contained there, which is close to 55 day EMA, to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.3566 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. But after all, firm break of 1.3664 is now needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, risk will stay on the upside even in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. At this point, the structure is not clearly impulsive yet. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping between 1.3685/3793. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.2993) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high).
