USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3418 continued last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside for 1.3976 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. Nevertheless, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.3890 minor support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.
In the bigger picture, sideway consolidation pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) might still extend further. While another decline cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Decisive break of 1.3976 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
