In focus today
- Today is light on the data calendar, with no tier-1 releases scheduled.
- In Sweden, the Producer Price Index for March will be published, serving as a reliable leading indicator for goods prices over a 3-6-month horizon. We will closely monitor to what extent the high energy prices and the war have impacted other prices besides energy.
- Have a great weekend!
Economic and market news
What happened overnight
In the Middle East conflict, Trump announced a three-week extension to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. However, this did little to calm oil prices, with Brent crude holding yesterday’s levels, trading at the highest level since the ceasefire announcement slightly over two weeks ago. The market reacted to signs of renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict and reduced odds of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets signal less than 50% chance of traffic normalising before the end of May.
In Japan, the national March CPI confirmed consensus expectations of a modest increase in core inflation to 1.8% y/y, as government fuel subsidies and easing food inflation offset cost-push pressures from the energy shock. While inflation remains below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, renewed acceleration could come in the coming months as firms pass on higher input costs. These dynamics will likely be key factors at the Bank of Japan policy meeting next week.
What happened yesterday
In the euro area, the composite PMI fell more than expected in April to 48.6 (prior: 50.7), driven by weaker services at 47.4 (cons: 49.8, prior: 50.2). The manufacturing index surprised on the upside at 52.2 (prior: 51.6), partly due to longer delivery times, but output and new orders was still above 50 indicating that the sector is not hit as hard as feared. As services is the largest sector, this decline is more important than the manufacturing rise, which is dovish for the ECB. However, price components rose sharply, partly countering the dovish take from the growth data. Overall, the diverging trends in growth and prices supports the view of ECB holding rates unchanged in April as they await more data. With the ECB being more focused on curbing upside inflationary pressures relative to downside growth pressures we still see two hikes this summer as the most likely scenario.
In the US, the Composite PMI recorded a solid uptick to 52.0 (prior: 50.3), driven by stronger manufacturing at 54.0 (prior: 52.3) and services at 51.3 (prior: 49.8). However, manufacturing indices appear to have been partly distorted by longer supply delivery times and potentially by front-loaded new orders ahead of expected cost increases and shortages. On the surface, this appears to support the notion that the euro area is relatively more vulnerable to the energy shock, but we caution against overinterpreting single data prints.
In the UK, April PMIs suggest the economy has remained afloat, with the service sector even accelerating, leaving the composite PMI at 52 – much stronger than expected. Price indices rose sharply, driven primarily by input prices, but also the output price index climbed above 62, its highest level since early 2023. On the other hand, consumer sentiment declined for a third consecutive month to the lowest level since late-2023. Overall, recent data probably strengthens the arguments for hiking rates and will likely serve to split the hawks and doves in the Bank of England already at the policy meeting next week.
In Sweden, Anna Seim delivered a speech, aligning closely with Governor Thedeen’s stance on Wednesday, maintaining a relatively hawkish tone while emphasising the need for more evidence before adjusting policy. Her remarks suggest vigilance regarding inflation risks but acknowledge subdued inflationary pressures in Sweden.
In Norway, preliminary wage statistics showed that annual wage growth (3-month moving average) slowed from 3.8% to 3.3% in March. While this figure is significantly below Norges Bank’s (NB) 2026 estimate of 4.5%, it is important to note that the NB estimate accounts for contributions from central negotiations and wage drift throughout the year. That said, the figures clearly point to a slowdown in overall wage growth, which could indicate a somewhat weaker labour market.
Equities: Global equities ended a touch lower at 0.4% in general sour risk sentiment. S&P500 declined 0.4%, Nasdaq -0.9%, Russell2000 -0.4%. Stoxx600 was flat. Value stocks largely reversed Wednesday’s decline, amid an otherwise defensive outperformance to cyclicals. The tech sector was the clear underperformer, however this was entirely driven by the software companies that was 5.1% down yesterday. Futures are generally down, with the exception of Nasdaq as Intel gave strong AI driven outlook. Asian indices are mostly in red.
FI and FX: Trump’s announcement of an extended ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon did little to calm oil prices, which continued rising yesterday with Brent crude rising to the highest level since the announcement of ceasefire a little over two weeks ago. By extension, EUR/USD also declined further below 1.17. Global yields held fairly steady with USD swap rates ending the day 1-3bp higher across the curve while EUR swap rates did a minor twist flattening of the curve. PMI releases failed to significantly move markets. The upwards pressure on EUR/DKK eased a bit yesterday. It might be that DKK has started to receive support from the recent bout of positive risk sentiment, which has also benefitted SEK and NOK.
