USD/CAD stayed in consolidation below 1.3958 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week and further rally is expected. Decisive break of 1.3976 key resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. On the downside break of 1.3822 support will bring deeper pullback. But downside should be contained by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3741).
In the bigger picture, sideway consolidation pattern from 1.3976 (2022 high) might still extend further. While another decline cannot be ruled out, strong support should emerge above 1.2947 resistance turned support to bring rebound. Rise from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still in favor to resume at a later stage. Decisive break of 1.3976 will target 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391.
In the longer term picture, price actions from 1.4689 (2016 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern, which might have completed at 1.2005. That is, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2947 resistance turned support holds.
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