USD/CAD retreated after edging higher to 1.3797 last week but rebounded strongly since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3797 will resume the rebound from 1.3538 short term bottom to 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017). Nevertheless, below 1.3616 will bring retest of 1.3538 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.
In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3494) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.
. Nevertheless, below 1.3616 will bring retest of 1.3538 low.){kind=link}