Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral first with current retreat. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.4247 to 1.3730 at 1.3927 to complete the corrective bounce from 1.3730. On the downside, break of 1.3823 minor support will bring retest of 1.3730 first. However, firm break of 1.3927 will bring stronger rally to 61.8% retracement at 1.4050, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.3480 low with another leg.
In the bigger picture, the pattern from 1.4791 (2025 high) is still extending, with fall from 1.4247 as the third leg. Firm break of 1.3480 will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3480 from 1.4247 at 1.2936. For now, medium term risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.4247 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
