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USDCAD Outlook

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook


Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2643; (P) 1.2685; (R1) 1.2714; More....

USD/CAD drops further to as low as 1.2623 so far as consolidation from 1.2916 continues. At this point, we'd still expect downside to be supported by 1.2598 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.2726 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.2916. Break of 1.2916 will resume the rally from 1.2061 and target 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level next. However, sustained break of 1.2598 will argue that rebound from 1.2061 has completed after hitting 55 week EMA (now at 1.2880). Near term outlook will be turned bearish in this case.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD should have defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Rise from 1.2061 medium term bottom should now target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Firm break there will target 1.3793 key resistance next (61.8% retracement at 1.3685). We'll now hold on to this bullish view as long as 1.2450 support holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart