USD/CHF’s fall from 1.0128 resumed last week by taking out 0.9908 support. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.9848 support first. Break there will confirm near term reversal and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9765. On the upside, break of 1.0008 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, near term outlook will now remain bearish in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9541 could have topped at 1.0128. But as long as 0.9541 support holds, we’d still expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 0.9514 will pave the way back to 0.9186 low.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
