USD/CHF dropped notably last week as correction from 1.0237 extended lower. But overall outlook is unchanged. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained by 55 day EMA (now at 1.0081) to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.0237 will resume larger rise from 0.9186 to 1.0342 key resistance. However sustained break of the 55 day EMA would pave the way back to 0.9879 key support.
In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
