USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9975 last week but reversed dropped sharply from there. The corrective recovery from 0.9695 could have completed with three waves up to 0.9975. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Firm break of 0.9803 will confirm this bearish case and target 0.9695 and below. On the upside, though, break of 0.9975 will extend the rebound instead.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.